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2016年7月18日 星期一

NCR Group (NCR) Analysis Result

7/18/2016 11:50:00 下午 Posted by Unknown , , No comments
NCR Group (NYSE: NCR)      
Date: 07/15/2016

Last Close Price: $30.47                            Market Cap: $ 3.8 bil
P/E Ratio: N.A.                                        Fair Value: $20
Dividend Yield: N.A.                                Beta: 1.83 
Basic Description
NCR Corp is a technology company providing products & services enabling businesses to connect, interact & transact with customer. Its products include ATM & financial services software, point of sale devices, self-service kiosks & software applications. 

Historical Stock Prices

Financial Report Analysis


The financial services segment accounts for most revenue. From the operating income by segment, we can see that financial services and hospitality segment have higher operating margin. About 46% of revenue is from U.S. and 31% is from EMEA.

Revenue of NCR group grew modestly. However, operating income decreased from 2014. From 10K of NCR Group, it stated that “During 2015, the Company transferred the UK London pension plan obligations to PIC through the completion of a buy-out of the pension plan, resulting in a settlement of $427 million in 2015.” The pension expenses caused big influence on cost and expense. In addition, NCR has not paid cash dividends historically and it state that NCR group does not anticipate the payment of cash dividends on NCR common stock in the immediate future.


From DuPont analysis, ROA and ROE of 2015 are negative due to negative net margin. Asset Turnover didn’t change much from 2006 to 2015. However, financial leverage is fluctuant along with the time. TTM of financial leverage achieves almost 15 times. As a result, NCR group may have financial risk in the future.
Valuation: Market Multiples 



Valuation: Discount Free Cash Flow

Comments
To sum up, NCR group’s financial position doesn’t seem positive in recent years. Management of NCR indicates that they will develop toward to clouding. However, it didn’t not show on revenue. I think investor should wait and see whether NCR can change situation or not.



2016年7月10日 星期日

艾訊 (3088) 分析結果

7/10/2016 01:44:00 下午 Posted by Unknown , , No comments
簡介:
艾訊股份有限公司(代碼:3088.TW) 成立於19905月,主要從事嵌入式板卡暨系統產品 (EBS)、設計及製造服務產品 (DMS)、以及乙太網路產品等項目。近年依據工業物聯網 (Industrial Internet of Things, IIoT) 與工業4.0發展趨勢,積極投入工廠自動化、智慧交通,與智慧能源等應用領域。工業電腦大廠研華之持有其25.99%之股權。

十年股價走勢圖:
1 十年股價走勢圖
歷史數據分析:
1 歷史數據分析
2 營收狀況
由表1及圖1可知,艾訊的營收在2011年過後,呈現向上成長的趨勢,5年平均成長率達15.30%

3 獲利狀況
1及圖2則顯示,艾訊的營業毛利近五年平均約為35%、營業利潤率約為10%、稅後淨利率約為7%,可知除了營收有成長以外,在獲利能力上,也有緩和提升。

4 杜邦分析

杜邦分析法說明股東權益報酬率 (Return on Equity, ROE) 3類因素影響: (1) 營運效率:用稅後淨利率衡量 (2) 資產使用效率:用總資產週轉率衡量 (3) 財務槓桿:用權益乘數衡量。稅後淨利率是一個綜合性最強的財務分析指標,是此分析系統的核心。稅後淨利率數字越高,表示公司盈利能力及成本控制能力越強;總資產週轉率數字越高,表示公司運用資產提升銷售額的效率越高;權益乘數越高,表示負債越重,財務風險越高。由上表及上圖可知,艾訊的ROE2011過後,呈現相當程度的成長,而這些成長合理的來自於3類因素,並無財務風險的疑慮。

市場乘數法:
2 市場乘數 (工業電腦產業)
本益比 (Price-earnings Ratio, P/E) 說明當股價在低檔但獲利維持在高檔時,本益比偏低暗示這檔個股有逢低買進的投資價值;相反地,當股價飆高但獲利並未跟著成長,本益比偏高表示股價脫離合理價值,應逢高獲利了結。換個角度想,「本益比」也可視為投入成本和每年收益的比例。由表2可發現,艾訊的P/SP/E都低於產業的平均值,顯示艾訊的股價有被市場低估的情況。

5 艾訊歷史本益比
而從過去艾訊的歷史本益比中,也可以發現,目前的本益比處於低檔的狀況。

現金流量折現法:
3 WACC 相關計算參數
4 現金流量折現法
評論:
綜合以上分析可知,艾訊擁有良好的財務基本面,包括營收及ROE的成長,在自由現金流上,也擁有正向健康的現金流,惟目前市場股價並未反應艾訊之真正價值,建議投資人可以逢低買進。

2016年7月2日 星期六

2016年6月25日 星期六

2015年10月11日 星期日

American Express (AXP) Analysis --- I

10/11/2015 08:20:00 下午 Posted by Unknown , , No comments

Company Overview

American Express’s principal products and services are charge and credit payment card products and travel-related services offered to consumers and businesses around the world. They are principally engaged in businesses comprising four reportable operating segments: U.S. Card Services, International Card Services, Global Commercial Services and Global Network & Merchant Services. They compete in the global payments industry with charge[1], credit and debit card networks, issuers and acquirers, as well as evolving alternative payment providers. As the payments industry continues to evolve, American Express is facing increasing competition from non-traditional players that leverage new technologies and customers’ existing accounts and relationships to create payment or other fee-based solutions.

2015年10月4日 星期日

Eli Lilly Analysis --- III

10/04/2015 10:51:00 下午 Posted by Unknown , , No comments

Valuation

Market Approach





Current Eli Lilly’s multiples are higher than industry average and historical data. It means that Eli Lilly’s stock price is overvalued now. 

Income Approach





FCFF Model indicates the intrinsic value of Eli Lilly is $88.52 per share which is almost the same as current price $87.52(5015/10/02). It suggests investors should hold Eli Lilly until further information is available. 

Historical Stock Price





Source: Data are from Morningstar if not specified.

2015年9月11日 星期五

Eli Lilly Analysis --- II

9/11/2015 12:11:00 上午 Posted by Unknown , , No comments

1.  Fundamental Financial Data

Eli Lilly's Free Cash Flow
USD Mil
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Operating Cash Flow
1914
3976
5155
7296
4336
6857
7235
5305
5735
4367
Cap Spending
-1298
-1078
-1082
-947
-855
-1187
-1693
-1044
-1093
-1471
Free Cash Flow
616
2898
4072
6348
3481
5670
5542
4261
4642
2896
Free Cash Flow/Sales
4.2
18.47
21.85
31.15
15.94
24.57
22.82
18.85
20.08
14.76

Eli Lilly's Profitability Numbers
 
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Operating Margin
24.91
26.29
21.77
3.4
25.59
28.3
22.76
23.93
23.24
16.97
Net Margin
13.52
16.97
15.85
-10.17
19.82
21.97
17.9
18.09
20.27
12.19
Asset Turnover
0.59
0.67
0.76
0.73
0.77
0.79
0.75
0.66
0.66
0.54
Return on Assets
8.01
11.44
12.12
-7.4
15.28
17.34
13.45
12.01
13.45
6.6
Financial Leverage
2.28
2
1.96
4.34
2.88
2.5
2.49
2.33
2
2.42
Return on Equity
18.24
24.46
23.96
-20.31
53.25
46.2
33.49
28.89
28.92
14.49

Eli Lilly's Revenue Growth
 
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year over Year
5.68
7.14
18.75
9.36
7.15
5.68
5.25
-6.93
2.26
-15.13
3-Year Average
9.75
7.64
10.37
11.64
11.65
7.39
6.02
1.16
0.05
-6.87
10-Year Average
8.03
7.88
8.14
8.23
8.12
7.83
7.72
7.39
6.27
3.54

Facing a very steep patent cliff in 2014, Eli Lilly got a pretty low ROA and ROE comparing previous year. In addition, Eli Lilly confronted lowest YOY revenue growth rate. However, the good news is Eli Lilly had a stable positive free cash flow in past ten years.


2.  Segment Sales




Eli Lilly’s largest portion of revenue is from Endocrinology drugs followed by Neuroscience drugs and Oncology drugs. Animal health segment had a better profit margin comparing to human pharmaceutical products.

3.  Industry Overview






Eli Lilly’s gross profit is higher than industry average. However, its profit margin didn’t higher than industry average. The reason is that Eli Lilly tends to spend over 20% of its sales on R&D, much higher than the industry average. Before 2014, Eli Lilly’s ROA and ROE are higher than industry average. However, it’s ROA and ROE in 2014 are much lower than industry average.

Reference: Data from Morningstar.com and Eli Lilly's annual report