2015年8月30日 星期日

資金管理-《走進我的交易室》一書心得分享

8/30/2015 01:07:00 上午 Posted by Unknown , , No comments

概念一:2%解決方案---防鯊魚

限制任何一筆交易的損失,最高只占交易帳戶資金的2%

假設你的帳戶有200萬台幣,想買目前已經反彈的台積電 (2330),目前價格為124 (參考下圖,2015827),獲利目標為150元,停損的位置設在110元,那麼現在可以買進多少張台積電的股票呢?交易帳戶裡200萬台幣的2%4萬塊台幣,這就是可接受的最大風險。而以124元買進,110元停損的台積電,表示每股可以冒的風險是124-110 = 14元。最後,將最大可接受風險除以每股風險再除以1000 (台股一千股為一張,一張10塊錢),則得到40,000 / 14 / 1000 = 2.857張。

衍伸想法:就是操錯績效好的時候,就可以拿更多的錢來冒險,操作績效不佳時,限縮冒險的額度,把交易規模和績效連結起來。


概念二:6%的準則---防食人魚

每個月容許賠損金額,最高只能占交易帳戶的6%

假設你的帳戶前個月的餘額為200萬台幣,投資組合如下表:
投資組合
標的
價格
停損(10%)
張數
帳戶承受風險
2015/8/27
台積電 (2330)
124
112
3.33
2%
2015/8/27
葡萄王(1707)
168
151
2.35
2%
2015/8/27
富邦金(2881)
53.9
49
8.16
2%
總和




6%
6%的準則是根據前個月月底的帳戶餘額去計算,用以保護交易帳戶的淨值,如果當月的帳戶承受風險已達6%  ,則不可以再交易,除非帳戶承受風險低於6%

衍伸想法:在一連串的獲利之後,提高交易規模,但在一連串虧損發生時,即早停止交易。 


資料來源:亞歷山大·艾爾德,走進我的交易室

2015年8月29日 星期六

市場,生存為王,談交易風險控管(一)

8/29/2015 11:00:00 下午 Posted by Unknown , No comments
【2015年8月29日】

今年八月來到尾聲,回顧這一個月的資本市場真可謂腥風血雨、草木皆兵,國際商品、金融市場像在搭雲霄飛車一樣,不是大跌就是大漲,動不動就是3%以上的漲跌水準,連平時盤整性很強的台灣股市,都幾乎天天上演大行情,天天創新低,天天跌破股民眼鏡!恐慌指數(VIX)一度飆破50點關卡,金融海嘯過後,這樣舉世恐慌的情景還真是第一次見到。

 
附圖 今年八月恐慌指數(VIX)一度衝破50點七年來新高 
資料來源: Investing

市場是否變得不理性了?還是市場正在預告不久的未來將有浩劫的發生?誰都說不準的,市場上有人高喊「海嘯要來了,能跑多遠就跑多遠吧!」,卻也有人高舉著危機入市的旗幟,開始大撿便宜。誰對誰錯?筆者只能提醒各位,市場上永遠不會有百分之百的正確答案,這也正是市場的迷人之處!我們能做的僅僅是保護好自己,或許我們有可能錯失一個大好機會,但只要我們仍然留得一座青山,下一次、下下一次機會來臨時,我們依然能夠重整旗鼓去參與盛況。近期總是聽到許多因為市場劇烈波動而造成的不幸事件,有人一夕虧掉數百萬、有人剎那間變得一無所有。也因此筆者特別有感而發,想藉此機會與各位朋友簡單分享我對於「風險」的認識與控管方法。
 在談論方法以前,我們必須先進入自己的內心世界,探討自己對於進入市場的理念究竟是什麼?

投資?投機?賭博?

究竟我們是以怎麼樣的邏輯思維,將自己的資金投入金融市場呢?由市場前輩的著作和經驗談話中,加上筆者個人的觀察,大概可以將之分成三大層級-投資(投資家)、投機(投機者、賭徒)、賭博(賭客),很多市場新手非常喜歡稱呼自己的入市行為為「投資市場」,聽起來威風凜凜的,而且好像距離巴菲特只剩一步之遙,但行為模式卻比較像是假期到Las Vegas隨便賭個幾把的遊客一樣,妄想幸運女神對他的回眸一笑。以下為個人的理解,分別定義這三大市場行為模式: 

一、關於「投資」

相信這是大家最不陌生的名詞了。尋找具有價值或是創造價值能力的標的,將自己的時間、金錢投入其中,並期許該標的未來的成長讓自己投入的資源可以如期成長到值回票價的程度!
  • 價值投資好公司股票是一種投資。
  • 許定終生伴侶也是一種投資。
  • 孟母三遷其實也是一種投資。
投資是一種「信任」的表現,投資家通常可以經由長期努力的研究分析達成此等信任,因此投資的報酬/成本比率(或是報酬/風險比率,後續會針對此做說明)需要額外考慮到較高的時間成本,因此通常會比較高,可能會到數倍之多。有些市場不適合太長期的投資,原因可能是市場太過於淺碟,或是該市場沒有提供良好的公司成長環境。

二、關於「投機」

投機一詞在一般大眾的印象中可能不是那麼好,聽起來不務正業,總是在取巧,但投機與賭博最大的差異就在於,一個好的方法(或是策略)的存在與否。相信有人可以靠投機餬口、甚至致富嗎?有的,賭場中的職業賭徒就是在幹這一行,市場上的短線交易人、造市者(Market Maker)等也是靠這樣的Know-How生存著。
  • 買空賣空期貨契約是一種投機(契約本身不具有價值,但有價格)
  • 一周異國戀情也算是一種投機。
  • 順路搭個便車也可以算是一種投機。
投機是一種「游牧」的表現,只求過路不求久留,而這種路過會被期許著帶走一些什麼好處,但你想要如此做,就必須拿出點辦法,否則沒有多少人會笨到白白給你好處,所以投機講求「策略」、「戰術」,一直都有人以游牧為業,既然如此,以投機為業的人自然是不奇怪了。
投機的報酬/成本比率是多樣化的,視不同策略而定,投機客通常不因單次行動的失敗而挫折,他們容忍失敗,只要長期下來結果是好的,何樂而不為?

三、關於「賭博」

賭博簡單的說,就是把一切交給機率,如投擲硬幣,不是公、就是字,賭博通常只能當成娛樂,因為沒有人會願意站在吃虧的那一邊,所以主開局的莊家往往是吃盡玩家的豆腐,長期下來是極不可能靠著不利於自己的機率而獲勝的。
  • 簽一張50元樂透是賭博。
  • 聯誼抽車伴是一種賭博。
  • 讓路癡負責帶路某種程度也算是一種賭博。
這也能看出賭客與賭徒的差別,賭客在賭博,賭徒在投機,賭客只是剛好放假來賭場玩個幾天碰碰運氣,賭徒卻必須靠著一些經驗和手法,長期在賭桌上生存,所以賭客最好是見好就收,甚至必須賠夠了就停手,因為機會是不會站在一個觀光客凱子那邊的。
賭博的報酬/成本比,通常會是小於1的,也就是長期平均成本會大於平均報酬,因為機會和期望值不會站在你這邊,莊家不會是笨蛋。



經過以上的分析,正打算進入市場,或已經進入市場的你,認為自己最符合哪種行為模式呢?進入市場前你有沒有事先進行市場、產業、公司相關研究,而且做得比身邊那些不太常在市場上獲利的朋友還精確?若沒有,你還認為你是在投資嗎?你有沒有一套準則、策略、方法,並且經過實測證明行得通,幫助你在市場上殺進殺出呢?若沒有,你的行為和到澳門旅遊的賭客有何兩樣?何況賭客還能接受賭場的五星級招待,賭得還比較奢華些呢!
在市場上的行為模式為個人的選擇,另外,個性會讓你對某些特定的方法感到更加的習慣和安心,但若只是喜歡單純的賭機率,在機率不站在你那一邊的情況下,筆者都相當建議你要見好就收,見不好也要收。

談風險承受度和資金部位規模

最近有剛進入金融市場不久的朋友對我說過,他把每筆虧損的交易都當成繳學費,希望將來可以避開每一筆曾經發生過的虧損交易。這種說法能有兩種時空背景-做投資研究的時候,可能忽略掉某個重要環節而造成決策錯誤,這的確具有檢討的價值;而我那位朋友做的是投機交易(期貨),相較於投資交易,投機交易傾向的是機率的遊戲,若把每一筆虧損都當成錯誤的學習,則顯得過度逃避正視機率的存在,這往往會衍生出一個問題-「認為可以達到100%的勝率,而忽略了風險的管理。」,而就算是進行投資交易的高手,市場上也會不時的出現前所未見的盲點,筆者認為,市場上不存在100%的交投機會,也就是因為如此,我們更要關心風險。
談風險的第一個話題是「風險承受度」,你個性是保守還是積極?怎麼樣的虧損會讓你在交易上產生焦慮、晚上失眠甚至產生身心靈上的疾病?這可能是一個比率,也有可能是一個數值,在交易過程中若產生不快樂和過度的壓力承擔,健康和時間是賺多少錢都買不回來的,更甚者,筆者身邊的例子都顯示,心無餘裕的交易者通常無法獲利。沒有人喜歡發生虧損,尋找一個自己的「虧損密碼」,是正視風險的第一步,也是跨出投資()正軌的第一步。關於虧損密碼,將在後續舉出實例說明。
第二個話題是關於「資金規模」,大白鯊游過水面很難不引起一陣大漣漪,過大的部位進出同一種商品,也一定會引起較大的價格影響力,不過這個話題會牽涉到比較複雜的組合配置關係,加上本文主要針對的對象是部位較小的市場新手,這個話題也就暫不列入討論了。

本周就先談到此,下周將會針對風險控管的方法加以說明,並舉例幫助理解,期待下周見!

2015年8月23日 星期日

Eli Lilly Analysis --- I

8/23/2015 06:52:00 下午 Posted by Unknown , , No comments

Overview

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) was incorporated in 1901 in Indiana to succeed to the drug manufacturing business founded in Indianapolis, Indiana, in 1876 by Colonel Eli Lilly. Eli Lilly discover, develop, manufacture, and market products in two business segments —human pharmaceutical products and animal health products. The mission of human pharmaceutical business is to make medicines that help people live longer, healthier, more active lives. Most of the products they sell today were discovered or developed by their own scientists, and their success depends to a great extent on our ability to continue to discover, develop, and bring to market innovative new medicines. Animal health business, operating through Elanco division, develops, manufactures, and markets products for both food animals and companion animals. Eli Lilly manufacture and distribute products through facilities in the United States (U.S.), Puerto Rico, and 11 other countries. Their products are sold in approximately 120 countries.

Eli Lilly’s Products

Human Pharmaceutical Products

Endocrinology products
Humalog®, Humulin®, Trajenta®, Jentadueto®, Jardiance®, Trulicity™, Glyxambi®, Forteo®, Evista®, Humatrope®, Axiron®
Neuroscience products
Cymbalta®, Zyprexa®, Strattera®, Prozac®, Amyvid®
Oncology products
Alimta®, Erbitux®, Gemzar®, Cyramza®
Cardiovascular products
Cialis®, Effient®, ReoPro®

Animal Health Products

Food animals
Rumensin®, Posilac®, Paylean®, Optaflexx®, Tylan®, Micotil®, Pulmotil®, Pulmotil AC™, Coban®, Monteban®, Maxiban®, Surmax™ (sold as Maxus™ in some countries)
Companion animals
Trifexis®, Comfortis®
Novartis AH* products
Denagard®, Milbemax®, Atopica®, Fortekor™
*On January 1, 2015, we completed our acquisition of Novartis Animal Health (Novartis AH) in an all-cash transaction for approximately $5.4 billion. Novartis AH operates in approximately 40 countries.

Competition: Highly Competitive

Human pharmaceutical products compete globally with products of many other companies in highly competitive markets. Animal health products compete globally with products of animal health care companies as well as pharmaceutical, chemical, and other companies that operate animal health businesses.

Generic Pharmaceuticals

In the U.S. and the EU, the regulatory approval process for human pharmaceuticals (other than biological products (biologics)) exempts generics from costly and time-consuming clinical trials to demonstrate their safety and efficacy, allowing generic manufacturers to rely on the safety and efficacy of the innovator product. Therefore, generic manufacturers generally invest far less than Eli Lilly do in research and development and can price their products much lower than our branded products. Also, public and private payers typically encourage the use of generics as alternatives to brand-name drugs in their healthcare programs.

Biosimilars

Several of Eli Lilly’s current products, including Cyramza, Erbitux, and ReoPro, and many of the new molecular entities (NMEs) in their research pipeline are biologics. Competition for Lilly’s biologics may be affected by the approval of follow-on biologics, also known as biosimilars*. Globally, governments have or are developing regulatory pathways to approve biosimilars as alternatives to innovator-developed biologics, but the patent for the existing, branded product must expire in a given market before biosimilars may enter that market. The extent to which a biosimilar, once approved, will be substituted for the innovator biologic in a way that is similar to traditional generic substitution for non-biologic products, is not yet entirely clear, and will depend on a number of regulatory and marketplace factors that are still developing.
*A biosimilar is a biologic for which marketing approval is granted based on less than a full safety and efficacy package due to the  physical/structural similarity of the biosimilar to an already-approved biologic as well as reliance on the finding of safety and efficacy of the already-approved product.

Managed Care Organizations

The growth of MCOs* in the U.S. is also a major factor in the competitive marketplace for human pharmaceuticals. It is estimated that approximately two-thirds of the U.S. population now participates in some version of managed care. MCOs have been consolidating into fewer, larger entities, thus enhancing their purchasing strength and importance. Pharmaceutical companies compete aggressively to have their branded products included. Where possible, companies compete for inclusion based upon unique features of their products, such as greater efficacy, fewer side effects, or greater patient ease of use. A lower overall cost of therapy is also an important factor. Price is becoming an increasingly important factor in MCO formulary decisions, particularly in treatment areas in which the MCO has taken the position that multiple branded products are therapeutically comparable.
* MCOs can include medical insurance companies, medical plan administrators, health-maintenance organizations, Medicare Part D prescription drug plans, alliances of hospitals and physicians, and other physician organizations. MCOs typically maintain formularies specifying which drugs are covered under their plans. Exclusion of a drug from a formulary can lead to its sharply reduced usage in the MCO patient population.

Risk

A number of Eli Lilly’s top-selling human pharmaceutical products have recently lost, or will lose in the next several years, significant patent protection and/or data protection in the United States (U.S.) as well as key countries outside the U.S., as illustrated in the tables below:

Product
Revenues
($ in millions)
Worldwide Revenues
Patent / Data Protection - U.S.
Alimta
1,229.50
6%
Compound patent plus pediatric exclusivity 2017;
Vitamin dosage regimen patent plus pediatric exclusivity 2022
Cialis
1,039.90
5%
Compound patent 2017
Forteo
539.00
3%
Formulation and related process patents 2018; use patents 2019
Strattera
452.50
2%
Use patent plus pediatric exclusivity 2017
Effient
394.50
2%
Compound patent 2017; use patents 2022
Evista
207.20
1%
Use patents March 2014

Revenues
($ in millions)
Worldwide Revenues
Patent / Data Protection - Major Europe / Japan
Alimta
1,562.50
8%
Major European countries: compound patent December 2015, vitamin dosage regimen patent 2021;
Japan: compound patent December 2015, use patent to treat cancer concomitantly with vitamins 2021
Cialis
1,251.10
6%
Major European countries: compound patent 2017
Cymbalta
1,194.20
6%
Major European countries: data package protection 2014;
Japan: data package protection 2018
Zyprexa
917.50
5%
Japan: Compound patent December 2015
Forteo
783.00
4%
Japan: Data package protection 2018; formulation and related process patent 2019

*Numbers are from 2014 annual report.  

Reference:
Eli Lilly's Annual Report